Public Debt: After repeated warnings from government finance
officials around the world, the exploding U.S. debt has suddenly become a
major issue for foreign buyers. Maybe it's time we paid attention, too.
Worried about having too much U.S. debt on their books, a number of countries
are cutting their holdings of American government and corporate bonds.
According to the U.S. Treasury, foreign holdings of T-bills plunged $53
billion in December — a record. More than $34 billion of it was dumped by
China, which fell to No. 2 among holders of U.S. debt. Regaining the top spot
was Japan, with $768.8 billion. All told, foreigners hold $2.37 trillion of
U.S. government securities.
One month does not a long-term trend make. Yet, it's worrisome that as the
U.S. is printing record amounts of new debt, the main buyers are showing a
lack of appetite for what we're serving .
In recent months, Chinese officials have made it clear they're concerned
about the size of their U.S. debt portfolio and wanted to shrink it. They're
doing that now, with a vengeance. Others are doing the same, though not on the
same scale.
But isn't it just a lot of accounting, moving dollars from one national
ledger to the other? In a sense, yes. But remember: When we sell our debt, the
interest is determined by the demand for that debt. When demand is low,
issuers have to offer higher interest rates to lure buyers. That's starting to
happen now.
Our supply of debt threatens to overwhelm the demand for it. In the next 10
years, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. could add as
much as $13 trillion to its debt load — an unparalleled expansion, roughly
equal to a year of our current GDP.
With this year's deficit expected to come in at $1.56 trillion and next
year's at $1.4 trillion, the debt is piling up fast. We never worried too much
about it, as long as it stayed a minor part of the U.S. economy. Some debt can
even be healthy.
But in recent years, our debt-to-GDP ratio has exploded. Today, it's 94% of
GDP, up from 83% in 2009 and a little bit more than 60% two years ago. By
2020, it will be well over 100%, according to government estimates. And it
will soon take over our budget.
If foreigners ever decide en masse they don't want to hold U.S. debts —
kind of like beleaguered Greece today — the U.S. economy would suffer from
rising interest rates, a plunging currency and rampant inflation. We'd
survive, but not without a lot of pain.
Those who think the U.S. is special and the elementary rules of finance and
economics don't apply to us are wrong. And, as the saying goes, when the U.S.
sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.
We can fix this problem now. But it'll take discipline.
The surge in debt and deficits over the next 10 years is due almost
entirely to out-of-control spending. As the Heritage Foundation's Brian Riedl
notes, out of $45 trillion in total U.S. spending, we'll spend $26 trillion
over the next 10 years on entitlements and interest payments alone. We need to
bring spending under control.
But even spending control won't be enough. To get America growing again,
the government needs to stop using the tax code to punish savings and
investment. If not, we'll soon find our debts have become fiscal leg irons,
and we, their prisoners.