The Israeli military is preparing itself to launch a massive aerial
assault on Iran's nuclear facilities within days of being given the
go-ahead by its new government.
Two nationwide civil defence drills will help to prepare the public for
the retaliation that Israel could face.
“Israel wants to know that if its forces were given the green light
they could strike at Iran in a matter of days, even hours. They are making
preparations on every level for this eventuality. The message to Iran is
that the threat is not just words,” one senior defence official told
The Times.
Officials believe that Israel could be required to hit more than a
dozen targets, including moving convoys. The sites include Natanz, where
thousands of centrifuges produce enriched uranium; Esfahan, where 250
tonnes of gas is stored in tunnels; and Arak, where a heavy water reactor
produces plutonium.
The distance from Israel to at least one of the sites is more than 870
miles, a distance that the Israeli force practised covering in a training
exercise last year that involved F15 and F16 jets, helicopters and
refuelling tankers.
The possible Israeli strike on Iran has drawn comparisons to its attack
on the Osirak nuclear facility near Baghdad in 1981. That strike, which
destroyed the facility in under 100 seconds, was completed without Israeli
losses and checked Iraqi ambitions for a nuclear weapons programme.
“We would not make the threat [against Iran] without the force to back
it. There has been a recent move, a number of on-the-ground preparations,
that indicate Israel's willingness to act,” said another official from
Israel's intelligence community.
He added that it was unlikely that Israel would carry out the attack
without receiving at least tacit approval from America, which has struck a
more reconciliatory tone in dealing with Iran under its new
administration.
An Israeli attack on Iran would entail flying over Jordanian and Iraqi
airspace, where US forces have a strong presence.
Ephraim Kam, the deputy director of the Institute for National Security
Studies, said it was unlikely that the Americans would approve an attack.
“The American defence establishment is unsure that the operation will
be successful. And the results of the operation would only delay Iran's
programme by two to four years,” he said.
A visit by President Obama to Israel in June is expected to coincide
with the national elections in Iran — timing that would allow the US
Administration to re-evaluate diplomatic resolutions with Iran before
hearing the Israeli position.
“Many of the leaks or statements made by Israeli leaders and military
commanders are meant for deterrence. The message is that if [the
international community] is unable to solve the problem they need to take
into account that we will solve it our way,” Mr Kam said.
Among recent preparations by the airforce was the Israeli attack of a
weapons convoy in Sudan bound for militants in the Gaza Strip.
“Sudan was practice for the Israeli forces on a long-range attack,”
Ronen Bergman, the author of The Secret War with Iran, said. “They
wanted to see how they handled the transfer of information, hitting a
moving target ... In that sense it was a rehearsal.”
Israel has made public its intention to hold the largest-ever
nationwide drill next month.
Colonel Hilik Sofer told Haaretz, a daily Israeli newspaper,
that the drill would “train for a reality in which during war missiles can
fall on any part of the country without warning ... We want the citizens
to understand that war can happen tomorrow morning”.
Israel will conduct an exercise with US forces to test the ability of
Arrow, its US-funded missile defence system. The exercise would test
whether the system could intercept missiles launched at Israel.
“Israel has made it clear that it will not tolerate the threat of a
nuclear Iran. According to Israeli Intelligence they will have the bomb
within two years ... Once they have a bomb it will be too late, and Israel
will have no choice to strike — with or without America,” an official from
the Israeli Defence Ministry said.